The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects to date for the marketing year 2010/11 with a re-population of only 311 000 t - go FAO forecasts in the same direction - EU-27 become the largest importer - Brazil's exports likely to grow less strongly than predicted so far - cane sugar future prices again after correction in the upward movement
ROM / NEW YORK / WASHINGTON. On the world market for sugar is also distinguished in the current state of the economy in 2010/11 from a production surplus. This would however be much smaller than had been predicted in the spring by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Been forecast by the Washington experts for the current campaign is now a world sugar production of 161.9 million tonnes, which would be 8.4 million t or 5.5% more than last year. This production volume is a global consumption of 158.9 million tonnes compared with available sugar. To the calculated difference of around 3 million tonnes - compared with just over 6 million tonnes in the May forecast - in reality is however, a considerable shrinkage, which is why the U.S. agricultural department only a slight increase in global sugar stocks by 311 000 tonnes to 26 predicts 5 million tonnes at the end of the 2010/11 season. The trend in the same direction, the first forecasts of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for the development of the world sugar market in the current marketing year. According to the estimates of market experts in Rome, the global sugar production will increase compared to 2009/10 by 7.8% to 168.8 million tonnes, while consumption should grow by 2.2% to 166.1 million tonnes. The sugar stocks will rise purely arithmetically by 1.6 million tonnes or 2.9% to 56.4 million tons.
Look to India
To the relevant futures markets, the prices of sugar after the sharp correction at the end of the first November decade last up again: The traded on the New York Stock Exchange raw sugar contract number 11 to the settlement in March cost last Thursday at the close, 28.15 cts / lb (455 € / t), which corresponded to the on 12 November in the course of trade between recorded low of 25.56 cents / lb (413 € / t) an increase of some 10%. The previous contract high was on 9 November with 33.32 cents / lb (539 € / t) were selected. A year ago, these futures have been traded even for significantly less than 20 cents / lb (323 € / t). Last employed by the traders of all, the question whether India again allow the export of sugar. In 2007/08, the subcontinent had performed more than 5.8 million tons. After an extremely poor harvest, the then Indian government had restricted their exports and facilitate the import of sugar. Agriculture Minister Sharad P awar had recently declared that the government would after 21 November, on the other sugar policy decisions. He had spoken at the same time from a surplus of 3.5 million tons. The U.S. Agriculture Department is not expected that India will export sugar in 2010/11 again significant quantities. Whose export is estimated at only 20 000 tonnes. In contrast, the Washington experts still expect a sugar import India 1.0 million tonnes in the current campaign, compared with 4.1 million tonnes in the previous year and 2.8 million tonnes in the 2008/09 season.
Russia's largest net importer
Similar to the raw sugar price was in the white sugar recently characterized by strong fluctuations: The December listing on the futures exchange in London, within six months by 107% to just under $ 813 / t (596 €) in the head on 9 November was climbing broke, then up to 707 $ / t (518 €) on 12 November, a power, then some ground. Last Thursday went to the December white sugar futures in London, with a rating of 738 $ / t (541 €) from the market. With the correction to the decision had also contributed to the European Commission to increase the permitted exports of EU sugar quota by 350 000 tonnes to 1 million tonnes (AGRA-EUROPE 46/10, MARKET VIEWS + 15). The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates the EU bulk sugar exports for the current season to 1.46 million tons, compared with 2.41 million tonnes in the last campaign, and 1.33 million tons in 2008/09. The sugar imports of the EU-27 in the current season are estimated at approximately 3.6 million tons. Should the predictions of the Washington meeting professionals, the Community would be 2010/11 of the world's largest sugar importer. Largest net buyer of agricultural product would be Russia, whose imports in the current campaign to 3.05 million tonnes is estimated, with exports of 100 000 t. It follows Indonesia with an estimated net import requirement of 2.9 million tonnes, against 2.1 million tonnes of EU
Bioethanol also significantly more expensive
For the country predicts the U.S. Agriculture Department sugar imports of nearly 2.1 million tonnes and exports of about 140 000 tonnes. Worldwide a total of 2010/11 are expected according to the forecast of the U.S. Department of Agriculture about 49.2 million tonnes of sugar are based in raw value of the importing countries, which would be 2.25 million mt less than estimated for 2009/10. clearly dominated the international sugar trade is on the supply side of Brazil that is in the current campaign in accordance with the prediction from Washington to export 26.85 million tons of sugar, which would be 2.55 million tons or almost 11% more than last year. In May, the U.S. experts had still an increase in Brazil's sugar exports in the current campaign to more than 28 million tonnes was possible. First drought, then too much rain in the central south of Brazil but have reduced the earnings outlook significantly. The Brazilian cane sugar production for 2010/11 is now estimated at 39.4 million tonnes, which would be another 3 million tonnes over 2009/10. The current export forecast of Washington based on the assumption that the bio-ethanol production in Brazil to 3.05 billion liters to 28.75 billion liters will be increased. Parallel to the sugar prices have this year also increases the revenues for the agricultural alcohol strong: bioethanol settlement in December cost to the Commodity Exchange in Chicago on Thursday before the close of trading $ 2.155 / gal (0.42 € / l) compared to the deep of nearly $ 1.47 / gal (0.29 € / l) at the end of June, the contract has gained 47% in value. The previous high for December-Ware was on 9 November was $ 2.365 / gal (0.46 € / l) is reached.
Export supply is concentrated too much
According to the FAO, the sugar was not as volatile as this year since 1970. The UN agency makes this the increasing focus on the export side responsible. While the top five sugar exporters of the FAO, 2005-2009, only 66% of world trade meeting at himself; at this proportion in the marketing year 2010/11 rise in accordance with the prediction of the Roman agricultural market experts to 74%, and only to Brazil more than half of the total Sugar exports are. Based only on the Rohzuckermarkt the share of the South American country, according to FAO amounts even to 65%. Moreover, exports of EU and U.S. are eliminated or modified under trade agreements and thus are deprived of the free world market, it brings Brazil to 75% of the raw sugar that is traded globally. This high concentration on one country promotes, according to the UN agency, the volatility of the sugar market. In the face of expected increases in import demand in the medium term, the FAO has therefore a broad basis for supply of sugar is necessary. Most important sugar for sale exporters are Brazil, Thailand and Australia next. In Thailand, the earnings outlook has deteriorated markedly since May, so that the revised U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast of the sugar exports of the Asian kingdom by 500 000 tonnes to 4.7 million tonnes down. The estimate of the Thai sugar exports, however, 2009/10 was the same time raised by 900 000 tonnes to 5.9 million tons. there was no change with respect to the Australian Export Figures: Here is further assumed that an increase in sugar exports by 150 000 tonnes to 3.75 million tonnes in the marketing campaign 2010/11. EE
Exchange rate: 1 $ = € 0.7331 (11/24/2010)
